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 Major revision June 2005 Some minor editorial corrections 2012.
THE KILLERBELT

This web page is about seat belt safety.

The US - NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) advises that seat belts save lives. However they cannot demonstrate that there has been a nett diminuition in road fatalities despite the most strenuous efforts of government sponsored researchers to establish that road fatalities have diminished.

Two scientists have originated a theory that explains this anomoly.  They speculated that human nature is to blame.  When a safety improvement is introduced, the driver compensates by driving less carefully.

Analysis of data collected by the NHTSA leads to the conclusion that drivers who wear a seat belt are less likely to be a fatality.

Further analysis shows that they are more likely to be involved in a fatal road accident than drivers who do not wear a seat belt.

The conclusion is that drivers who wear safety belts reduce the risk to their own lives in any single incident, while increasing the overall risk to other road users.



THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE KILLED IS GREATER WHEN DRIVERS ARE BELTED.


EVIDENCE.

INTRODUCTION a thumbnail sketch of developments, and a sketchy review of relevant books and papers.

DOCUMENTATION. showing the effectiveness of Seat Belts.

I have published the letter of a road safety group in Ireland.

NOTE February 2012.  Nearly all of the links to the NHTSA site are broken.  Researchers interested in following up on my calculations are advised to ask NHTSA for originals.


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Originally published 28 April 1997.

This cover page first inserted 11 May 2000
Site update Dec 2003