Back in 2000 AD, I wrote FORECASTS2000.
This is the quinquennial review and revision.
Large scale corporations are (still) overdue for
The difficulties facing General Motors and FORD and the big US and
harbingers of that
The cancer will spread.
copyrights of everything (literature, performance arts, technology,
concept, science, pharmaceuticals) are under attack. Ultimately, no amount of legislation will be able to put Humpty
together again. Public pressure will eventually produce
legislation that shortens the extinction of patents &
Next to the block will be the large retail chains,
followed by the household utilities as solar energy utilization and
waste recycling become cottage industries and household water is
supplied by household water tanks. Local loop communications will
by free decentralized wireless networks.
Transport infrastructure will no longer be a
suitable target for venture capital, as the experience with the cross
city tunnel and the airport railway in Sydney has shown. In
future, financial managements of these type of projects will be the responsibility of
government, although public bond finance and competitive tender will be
acceptable methods to construct and finance them in the first instance.
Transport, real estate and mining operations remain the best potential investment market for the next five to ten years. Government guaranteed or monopoly infrastructure investment is even better, if it can be found.
Stock exchanges worldwide continue in turmoil as
fund managers continue to seek a home for the flood of money (much of
it produced by government legislation) that is pouring into their
coffers. That flood of
money will continue to provide support for stock, bond and real estate
prices until growing public scandal causes political
intervention. It should be possible for a skillful player to
profit from fluctuations in those industries. Ultimately (5-10
the prospects for stocks, bonds and real estate is bleak.
If the above harbingers aren't enough,
"Elliott wave theory" also known as "Kondratrieff wave theory" has a
doleful prediction of a major correction. "Wave theory"
analysts have been around for decades, and believe that boom & bust
are the product of social forces. Analysts claim to have
found that there is an approximately 40 year cycle to economic
activity and have found that every (about) 40 years there is a major
recession, (excepting sometimes there isn't, in which case the
following recession 40 years later is exacerbated.) The last
recession was in 1929, which is 76 years ago.
(and overtaxed) regimes of Europe will continue in economic
as their stagnant governments raise taxes in an
attempt to maintain the bureaucracy with a declining tax base.
The UK (which has been fighting the trend) will decline as North Sea
reserves decline. Performance of the
US economy will be spotty to good, as new industries take over from
the old. The caveat is that government not intervene to prolong
agonies of the old industries. Japan's economy will improve from
it's weakened base. Australia will continue to prosper on
the back of primary product sales to China and further
liberalization of the labour laws.
In 2000 I predicted that the
China (corporation China) was in decline because of the changeover to a
liberal economy. I still believe that the government is in
relative decline when considering it's control of the Chinese
however since the Chinese economy is growing at above 8% p/a, the
power of the Chinese government has increased. That
increase will continue until those two intersect.
India is invading the
information economy, and by 2010 will be strongly competing with China
for Primary Industry resources.
In communication, I previously stated that "Matt
Drudge has shown that a single internet
can establish a domain that is just as reliable a source of interesting
& innovative news as mogul owned billion dollar networks."
I made a mistake. I should have understood
that Drudge was not a
so much as an internet information node. Google has supplanted
Drudge's position, and is currently the premier information node for
world. Advertising dollars are capturing audience via the
nodes and the information manufacturers. The
outlook for the traditional
information nodes (newspapers, radio, television) is precarious.
Many journalists have obtained their byline by
sychophanty rather than insight. Consequently, I would be
unsurprised if journalists are not well represented in the
ranks of successful bloggers.
Information manufacturers have begun disbursing
their product sans middleman. EffectMeasure
has outlined the growth of blogging in academe, Globe of blogs, Google's blogsearch have
lists of and searches for blogs on just about everything.
MEDIA PREDICTIONS ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED: Advertising dollars will follow the audience. The audience will follow the stars. The stars of the future will be those people (and information nodes) that have attained public recognition for their attributes & abilities, be they physical or intellectual, with emphasis on integrity. Newsprint (and other media) corporations will survive (even if much reduced) as the opinion fashion houses of the future, attracting clientele by their editorial policies consistency.
CRIME & THE LAW. (Crime Section unchanged)
Crime detection & punishment will become
precise and more relevant. This is foreshadowed in the USA where
hundreds of men serving long sentences for rape are being set free when
genetic examination of the sperm (that has been kept frozen) shows that
the person convicted was not guilty of the crime. The huge number
of fixed location video cameras installed is already assisting police
the tracing of criminals. Extrapolating, it will probably become
possible within ten or
twenty five or ten years to use existing satellite photographs
identify and convict individuals guilty of crimes performed in the
day. For white collar crime the prospects are even more
Crimes committed decades past will be ferreted out by intelligent
and the (now wealthy) fraudsters and their heirs deprived of
ill gotten wealth (well maybe). Eventually crime will
diminish to near
as diagnostic and detection tools anticipate and identify criminal acts.
THE JUSTICE SYSTEM will attempt to respond to the laws introduced by our legislators by prosecuting those cases in copyright and patent, however innovation will make a mockery of their attempts.
PREDICTION: Contractual and tortious disputes between individuals and corporations will increasingly be settled by preagreed arbitrators. Prenuptial agreements, marriage ceremonies and divorce arbitration will merge & become "packages" offered by competing religious and/or arbitration organizations. Voluntary and compulsory treatment will effectively eradicate fraud and violence. The expensive state system will evolve to enforcement and appeal matters.
The human life expectancy at birth in Australia (E0x) was (in 2003) 82.8
years. Those who had reached 80 in 2003 AD had a life expectancy
9.7 years. Many of
diseases of old age are now becoming curable, or are said to be curable
within the next few years. Research in stem-cell technology
appears to hold out hope that worn-out limbs & organs might soon be
The threat of a world Pandemic is being studied and
considerable resources are being devoted to mitigating the spread and
virulence of any potential pandemic.
PREDICTION UNCHANGED: Procedures that maintain health and restore youth will become available by 2030.
As the spotlight of the evolving interactive media reveals the corruption, shortcomings and mismanagement of politicians, the mass of people will demand reform. A consequence is the steady increase of independent representatives in our democratically elected legislative assembly, despite the surreptitious efforts of Labour and Liberal party politicians to stack the deck* against independents. In the state of NSW, Australia there are now seven independent representatives in an assembly of 93 members.) Successful representatives of the internet era will be those that share power with the people, and the power of politicians in the leading liberal democracies will be diminished as voters select those politicians most responsive to their needs.
The collection of income and sales taxes will become more difficult as highly paid employees have their income paid in low tax states or countries, or move offshore, and make purchases from low sales tax sources. High corporate taxes will be seen as inefficient as they drive manufacturing and industry offshore.
PREDICTION: Government Revenue
from income, sales and corporate taxes will begin to shrink by 2008 as
large corporations stagnate and the income tax base
diminishes. Diminishing revenue will be supplemented by
land & resource rental taxes.
The new era politician will
obtain power by viral campaigns, and provide
those that they represent with a
greater say in the legislative process, probably by online polling on
proposed legislation, and online voting on important legislation.
*For instance, refund of expenditure on
the costs of being elected is only available to members of a registered
Secondary education will continue it's migration to the private sector, as to a lesser degree will Primary education. Eminent tertiary institutions will offer entry exams, which will result in new and cheaper training institutions providing training to attempt those exams. Eventually a few eminent tertiary institutions will offer public exit examinations (like for instance the Australian SAB = solicitors admission board) as qualification for a degree or entry into a profession. Mid range tertiary education providers will fight the trend.
PREDICTION UNCHANGED: Public
will tend towards cessation at
A handful of qualification
organizations will come to dominate the secondary and tertiary
market, leading to a cut in the cost of education.
What we call "Scientific Progress" is the utilization of applications in communication and energy. Landmarks in communication were the formation of language (circa 50k BC), the concept of hardcopy (aka writing, circa 8k BC), mass production of hardcopy (printing press, circa 12th Century) electricity (19th Century). Landmarks in energy were fire (40k BC?), Mechanical Advantage (aka wheel & lever, circa 5k BC), stored energy machines (e.g. heat engine, circa 17th Century).
This page concept originated 24 September 1997,
Updates 24 November
1998. Y2K added on 14 December '98, minor changes 24 Dec, 4 Jan, 4
10 July/99;.8 Sept. 1999, major update 21 November 1999, reviewed 18
2000, 20/29 February 2000. Second (this) quinquennial
version December 2005.
This page created December 2005.
For corrections, complaints, comments, opinions email.