The fact is, business is requiring fewer
workers in geometric progression.
instance of public transport.
Then, in the last
three years came UBER. Suddenly plates are not worth
anything, and the new networker has a cheaper credit model.
The future is self
driving cars. Combine that with competing booking agents
and the cost of personal transport "door to door" will drop
below the cost of bus transport "bus stop to bus stop".
And when parking
issues are considered, hiring a driverless car from Avis or
Hertz will be cheaper and more convenient than owning your own
car. Already I can hire a car in Sydney for
$25/day. That works out to be $1.04/hr.
Which is lots cheaper than Uber.
And, of course, all
those taxi drivers, bus drivers, transport inspectors, and
other support jobs will cease to exist.
That model can be
extended to trains, road transport, delivery (by drone).
model will extend to all employment
Communication Technology. On hardware trend analysis, sometime between about 2010 and 2030 communication technology will produce a computer with calculation power of the same order of magnitude as the human brain. This computer will be the basis of an android or cyborg or "intelligence enhancement device". (An "intelligence enhancement device" would probably take the form of an interface technology that coupled the neural cortex to a computing device having plastic silicon arrays that mimic neural architecture, that would effectively "add on" to thinking ability.) PREDICTION: By 2030 technology will produce intellect enhancement devices that would give the user an intelligence that (if it could be measured) would be measured above IQ 1,000.FACTOID: It is calculated that about 2017 the computing power of computers will equal the computing power of the human brain.
Let an ultra intelligent machine be defined as a machine that can surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; it is then possible that there would be an intelligence explosion.
The intelligence of man would be left far behind.
Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.